Determinants and Impact of Sovereign Credit Ratings

TLDR

Demand for sovereign credit ratings has risen sharply as more governments borrow internationally, yet lower‑than‑expected ratings often lead issuers to question the agencies’ consistency and rationale. The study asks how clear the criteria underlying sovereign ratings are and how much impact these ratings have on sovereign borrowing costs. To address these questions, the authors conduct the first systematic analysis of determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings assigned by Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s.

Abstract

n recent years, the demand for sovereign credit rat-ings—the risk assessments assigned by the creditrating agencies to the obligations of central govern-ments—has increased dramatically. More govern-ments with greater default risk and more companiesdomiciled in riskier host countries are borrowing in inter-national bond markets. Although foreign government offi-cials generally cooperate with the agencies, ratingassignments that are lower than anticipated often promptissuers to question the consistency and rationale of sover-eign ratings. How clear are the criteria underlying sover-eign ratings? Moreover, how much of an impact do ratingshave on borrowing costs for sovereigns?To explore these questions, we present the firstsystematic analysis of the determinants and impact of thesovereign credit ratings assigned by the two leading U.S.agencies, Moody’s Investors Service and Standard andPoor’s.