Effects of Deliberative Minipublics on Public Opinion: Experimental Evidence from a Survey on Social Security Reform

Abstract

This article examines the potential influence of deliberative minipublics on public opinion. Using data from a large-scale survey experiment with national coverage, we investigate whether learning the conclusions of a deliberative minipublic affects observers’ support for changes to the Social Security program. Survey respondents in the primary treatment conditions were exposed to the findings of deliberative citizens’ panels regarding proposed changes to Social Security. Respondents in control groups did not receive any information about the deliberative minipublic. Overall, our results suggest that deliberative minipublics have some ability to affect public opinion even if members of the public acquire only minimal information about them. In particular, they are able to influence the opinions of relatively uninformed citizens. The results also suggest, however, that the effects may be limited in their extent and magnitude—at least in the scenario, modeled by our experiment, in which citizens acquire only minimal information about deliberative minipublics.