Impact of mosquito gene drive on malaria elimination in a computational model with explicit spatial and temporal dynamics

TLDR

Gene‑drive mosquitoes hold great promise for malaria elimination, with laboratory studies demonstrating population suppression via fertility disruption, driving‑Y chromosomes, and transmission‑blocking replacement strategies. The authors use a seasonally explicit mathematical model to simulate realistic field conditions and evaluate constraints on construct parameters and release strategies for these gene‑drive approaches. Simulations reproduce sub‑Saharan African epidemiology and indicate that appropriately designed gene‑drive constructs could achieve malaria elimination even in the most challenging settings, while outlining the performance characteristics required for each strategy.

Abstract

Significance Gene drive mosquitoes have tremendous potential to help eliminate malaria, and multiple gene drive approaches have recently shown promise in laboratory settings. These approaches include population suppression through fertility disruption, driving-Y chromosomes, and population replacement with genes that limit malaria transmission. Mathematical modeling is used to evaluate these approaches by simulating realistic field settings with seasonality to determine constraints on construct parameters and release strategies. Parameter variation from simulation baselines captures much of sub-Saharan African epidemiology and shows high potential for gene drive constructs to provide transformational tools to facilitate elimination of malaria, even in the most challenging settings. This analysis provides insights into performance characteristics necessary for each approach to succeed that can inform their further development.