Techno-Economic Assessment of Power-to-Liquids (PtL) Fuels Production and Global Trading Based on Hybrid PV-Wind Power Plants

TLDR

Hybrid PV‑wind power plants could generate a terawatt‑scale market potential by substituting fossil fuels. The study proposes a value‑chain design and business case for transportation fuels using hybrid PV‑wind plants, electrolysis, and H2‑to‑liquids. The approach converts renewable electricity into synthetic diesel via power‑to‑liquids facilities. The RE‑diesel value chains are cost‑competitive at crude prices of $79–$135 per barrel, but optimal performance requires strategically located sites, risk mitigation, and continued efficiency gains in electrolyzers and H2‑to‑liquids.

Abstract

This paper introduces a value chain design for transportation fuels and a respective business case taking into account hybrid PV-Wind power plants, electrolysis and hydrogen-to-liquids (H2tL) based on hourly resolved full load hours (FLh). The value chain is based on renewable electricity (RE) converted by power-to-liquids (PtL) facilities into synthetic fuels, mainly diesel. Results show that the proposed RE-diesel value chains are competitive for crude oil prices within a minimum price range of about 79 - 135 USD/barrel (0.44 – 0.75 €/l of diesel production cost), depending on the chosen specific value chain and assumptions for cost of capital, available oxygen sales and CO2 emission costs. A sensitivity analysis indicates that the RE-PtL value chain needs to be located at the best complementing solar and wind sites in the world combined with a de-risking strategy and a special focus on mid to long-term electrolyser and H2tL efficiency improvements. The substitution of fossil fuels by hybrid PV-Wind power plants could create a PV-wind market potential in the order of terawatts.