Incorporating evolutionary adaptation in species distribution modelling reduces projected vulnerability to climate change

TLDR

Species are highly sensitive to climate change and face challenges tracking suitable conditions, prompting interest in their adaptive capacity. The study develops and applies AdaptR, a generic modelling approach that incorporates adaptive capacity via physiological limits, phenotypic plasticity, evolutionary adaptation, and dispersal into species distribution modelling. AdaptR identifies likely local adaptation sites and employs sensitivity analyses to determine critical uncertain parameters. Accounting for adaptive capacity with AdaptR reduces projected range losses of 17 Australian fruit fly species by up to 33% by 2105, indicating that some species may be less vulnerable than previously thought and that spatiotemporal adaptive models can aid management interventions to enhance resilience.

Abstract

Abstract Based on the sensitivity of species to ongoing climate change, and numerous challenges they face tracking suitable conditions, there is growing interest in species' capacity to adapt to climatic stress. Here, we develop and apply a new generic modelling approach ( AdaptR ) that incorporates adaptive capacity through physiological limits, phenotypic plasticity, evolutionary adaptation and dispersal into a species distribution modelling framework. Using AdaptR to predict change in the distribution of 17 species of Australian fruit flies (Drosophilidae), we show that accounting for adaptive capacity reduces projected range losses by up to 33% by 2105. We identify where local adaptation is likely to occur and apply sensitivity analyses to identify the critical factors of interest when parameters are uncertain. Our study suggests some species could be less vulnerable than previously thought, and indicates that spatiotemporal adaptive models could help improve management interventions that support increased species' resilience to climate change.