Analysis of net-load forecast error and new methodology to determine Non-Spin Reserve Service requirement

Abstract

Ancillary Services are critical to help the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) to manage the reliability and security of the grid in Texas. Non-Spin Reserve Service (NSRS) is part of ERCOT's ancillary service sets provided by generation or load resources which can come online within a specified time period (30 minutes) to deal with unexpected generation outage or large forecast errors. This study analyzes the statistics of the forecast errors for wind and describes a new way to determine how much NSRS ERCOT needs to procure to reduce the risk of resource deficit caused by large net-load ramp up events or excessive wind and load forecast errors.