Risk assessment of transmission dynamic line rating based on Monte Carlo

Abstract

A method to assess the operation risk of transmission line which using dynamic line rating technology is presented in this paper. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to model the micro-climate conditions along the transmission lines. Monte Carlo simulation is used to predict the distribution of conductor temperature with the climate models and line load current model. The operation risk of transmission line is predicted by the conductor temperate distribution. Typical summer and winter monitor data are used to analyze the reliability of dynamic rating and the result indicates that the operation risk is within the safe range and meeting the requirements of grid operation.