Electricity forecasting for small scale power system using fuzzy logic

Abstract

Electricity supply to Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS (UTP) comes from gas district cooling (GDC) plant as a primary source of energy and utility company Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) as a backup. With a maximum capacity of 8.4 MW which comes from 2 nos of gas turbine generators rated at 4.2 MW each, this work aims to forecast short term electricity demand of the plant. As a sole customer of the plant, UTP 2008 electricity demand data is being used as a basis to design a forecast model using Fuzzy Logic. With the forecast model, it will help GDC for pre-planned scheduling and maintenance of the plant and also as guidance for the daily operation of the plant. The proposed fuzzy logic model is applied to obtain one week forecast load demand data for GDC. The forecast accuracy is obtained and it is represented in mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).