Application of Fuzzy Markov in Calculating Reliability of Power Systems

Abstract

A power system has many components; each of them has three states: good, failure or maintenance. The state of the system is a combination of its components' state. Thus, the state of the system in every moment is the combination of the states of its components, and there will be 3n states of the system, where n is number of components. Markov model is very useful in calculating with large state space by using transition probability and initial value. In practice, sometimes we can not have the exact values of C, lambda, mup, muc but with some uncertainty about these values. This is quite common for the power system in developing country, where many system parameters are not normalized. This paper presents the combination fuzzy theory and Markov model. The model is very useful to calculate system's reliability. Using a-cut technique, the probability vector at moment t can be calculated and then the reliability curve of system will be built