Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom Scientific Report 1998

Abstract

This report describes how the climate of the UK has changed in the recent past and presents out understanding of how it may change through the next century in response to the build-up in atmospheric greenhouse gases. The predictions are based on the best information available in 1998. The scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations are based on the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the scenarios of climate change which may follow are based on climate modelling experiments performed by the Hadley Centre. The purpose of producing this report is to enable assessments to be made of the possible impacts of climate change in the UK. When and where damaging effects occur - or what opportunities may be presented that could be exploited? Specifically, the report was commissioned as an essential first step for the UK Climate Change Impacts Programme. This programme exists to help stakeholders in the public and private sectors assess their vulnerability to climate change, recognising that some effects are felt indirectly so that an integrated approach is required. The scenarios defined here are those that UKCIP recommend be used in such integrated studies. Overall the report represents a balanced account of the best information currently available on the future climate of the UK.