Evolutionary response when selection and genetic variation covary across environments

Abstract

Although models of evolution usually assume that the strength of selection on a trait and the expression of genetic variation in that trait are independent, whenever the same ecological factor impacts both parameters, a correlation between the two may arise that accelerates trait evolution in some environments and slows it in others. Here, we address the evolutionary consequences and ecological causes of a correlation between selection and expressed genetic variation. Using a simple analytical model, we show that the correlation has a modest effect on the mean evolutionary response and a large effect on its variance, increasing among-population or among-generation variation in the response when positive, and diminishing variation when negative. We performed a literature review to identify the ecological factors that influence selection and expressed genetic variation across traits. We found that some factors - temperature and competition - are unlikely to generate the correlation because they affected one parameter more than the other, and identified others - most notably, environmental novelty - that merit further investigation because little is known about their impact on one of the two parameters. We argue that the correlation between selection and genetic variation deserves attention alongside other factors that promote or constrain evolution in heterogeneous landscapes.