An exploratory policy analysis of electric vehicle sales competition and sensitivity to infrastructure in Europe

TLDR

The study examines policy interventions to accelerate vehicle technology transition. An extensive system‑dynamics market‑agent model of EU passenger‑car powertrain transitions to 2050 is used. The model shows that PiEV subsidies and infrastructure interact with other powertrains, that early infrastructure has limited impact until PiEV share exceeds ~5%, that excessive charging points yield little benefit, and that PiEV sales are insensitive above 25 vehicles per charger, guiding policymakers on optimal timing and balance of measures.

Abstract

This research contributes to discussions about policy interventions to stimulate the transition of vehicle technology. Concentrating on passenger cars, an extensive system dynamics based market agent model of powertrain technology transitions within the EU up to 2050 is employed. With a focus on subsidy scenarios for both infrastructure deployment and vehicle purchase, and set within the context of the EU fleet emission regulations, we find that there are important interactions between different powertrain types and with infrastructure provision. For example, strong plug-in electric vehicle (PiEV) policy could inhibit the maturity of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Infrastructure provision is important for improving the utility of a PiEV, but we find that in the early market it may have a weaker correlation with uptake than other policy options, until the PiEV stock share is over around 5%. Furthermore, an attempt to install a ratio of much more than one charge point per 10 PiEV may lead to little gains and high costs. PiEV sales are relatively insensitive at target levels over 25 PiEV per charge point. The results of our study can help policymakers to find the right balance and timing of measures targeting the transition towards low carbon alternative vehicles.