The Brexit vote: a divided nation, a divided continent

TLDR

The British referendum on EU membership shocked Europe, and the anti‑immigration, anti‑establishment sentiments that drove the vote are spreading across the continent. The article analyzes campaign and survey data to show that the divide between winners and losers of globalization was a key driver of the vote. Brexit support was strongest among less‑educated, poorer, older voters and those concerned about immigration and multiculturalism, and while no short‑term contagion effect was seen, the vote poses a serious challenge to the European political establishment.

Abstract

The outcome of the British referendum on European Union (EU) membership sent shockwaves through Europe. While Britain is an outlier when it comes to the strength of Euroscepticism, the anti-immigration and anti-establishment sentiments that produced the referendum outcome are gaining strength across Europe. Analysing campaign and survey data, this article shows that the divide between winners and losers of globalization was a key driver of the vote. Favouring British EU exit, or 'Brexit', was particularly common among less-educated, poorer and older voters, and those who expressed concerns about immigration and multi-culturalism. While there is no evidence of a short-term contagion effect with similar membership referendums in other countries, the Brexit vote nonetheless poses a serious challenge to the political establishment across Europe.