A Delay Time based Approach for Risk Analysis of Maintenance Activities

Abstract

AbstractDelay time modelling (DTM) has been developed and applied to industrial asset maintenance over the last 20 years. One of the key elements in DTM is the concept of the delay time which recognises an interval between the earliest point of defect identification and failure. Obviously the delay time is a random variable which varies depending upon the nature of defects and nature of inspections. If such a delay time can be captured by an appropriate distribution, various modelling options can be explored. This paper introduces the concept of delay time and its modelling techniques in the context of risk analysis of maintenance problems. It highlights the modelling for minimising the likelihood and consequence of economic or human risks associated with failures and maintenance activities under various maintenance strategies. Examples are presented, and the paper concludes with a summary of the key points discussed.