Predictors of future exacerbation risk in patients with asthma

Abstract

171 patients (118 female) with bronchial asthma (mean age 51.6 ± 13.2 years) were included in the study. The mean number of exacerbations in 1 year of follow up was 0.4 ± 0.8 while the majority of patients (71.9%) did not experience any exacerbation. In multivariate Poisson Regression analysis only 3 characteristics were predictors of future exacerbations: FEV1 [IRR(95% CI)], [0.970(0.954-0.987)], p = 0.001, high BMI [1.078(1.030-1.129)], p = 0.001, and the need for permanent treatment with oral corticosteroids for asthma control maintenance [2.542(1.083-5.964)], p = 0.032 CONCLUSION: Optimal guideline-based asthma management results in minimal occurrence of exacerbations in the majority of patients. Predictors of exacerbations are low FEV1 levels in stability, high BMI and the need for permanent treatment with oral corticosteroids.