Journal of the Structural Division · 1980 · 239 citations · 0 references
Natural SciencesMeteorologyPhysical GeographyClimatologyStochastic ModelingTropical MeteorologyCoastal MeteorologyTropical Cyclone ForecastingTropical CyclonesHurricane Wind FieldsPhysical ModelsProbabilistic Wind ModelingTropical Cyclone ClimatologyWeibull ModelWind ClimatologyWind Speed Statistics
The study uses a Monte Carlo simulation based on climatological data, probabilistic hurricane models, and physical wind‑speed field models to estimate hurricane wind speeds along the Gulf and East Coasts of the United States. Estimated 10‑m fastest‑mile wind speeds for various recurrence intervals are provided for the coastline and 200 km inland, best described by Weibull distributions with γ ≥ 4, with quantified errors and a caution that estimates north of Cape Hatteras may be unreliable.
A Monte Carlo simulation technique is used to obtain estimates of hurricane wind speeds along the Gulf and East Coasts of the United States. The paper describes the sources of data, the probabilistic models for climatological characteristics of hurricanes, and the physical models for the hurricane wind speed field used in the estimations. Estimated values of fastest-mile hurricane wind speeds at 10 m above ground in open terrain at the coastline and at 200 km inland are given for various mean recurrence intervals. The estimated hurricane wind speeds were found to be best fitted by Weibull distributions with tail length parameters γ≥4. Estimates are given of various errors inherent in the estimated values of the hurricane wind speeds. Owing to uncertainties with respect to the applicability of the physical models used in this work to locations north of Cape Hatteras, estimated hurricane wind speeds given for these locations should be viewed with caution.