SCENARIO-BASED PATH SELECTION IN UNCERTAIN EMERGENCY TRANSPORTATION NETWORKS

Abstract

The transportation networks often become uncertain due to the occurrence and development of disasters. In order to select proper paths under uncertain infor- mation, we propose a novel scenario-based approach for emergency path selection. The scenario factors are rstly analyzed and combined to describe the uncertainty of each path section between two adjacent intersections in emergency transportation networks. Then, according to the fuzzy properties of path sections, the membership transformation algorithm M(1,2,3) is applied in fuzzy evaluation on the scenarios of path sections, which can determine the satisfaction degrees of each path section. Combining the highest sat- isfaction of each section under various scenarios, an optimal multi-attribute vector is constructed to build the scenario-based optimization model for emergency path selection. Finally, a numerical example is shown to illustrate the solution of this approach, whose results show that this approach can produce the paths with maximized overall satisfaction degree in a given condence and that the satisfaction degree will increase as the given condence decreases.