Global threat to agriculture from invasive species

TLDR

Invasive species pose significant threats to global agriculture, yet the magnitude and distribution of these threats across countries and regions remain unclear. The study analyzes nearly 1,300 known invasive insect pests and pathogens, estimating potential costs for each of 124 countries and identifying which nations pose the greatest threat to others based on trade partners and existing invasive species pools. By calculating country‑specific potential costs and mapping source countries through trade relationships and incumbent invasive species, the authors provide a comprehensive risk assessment framework. Results show that countries vary in both threat and source roles; major producers such as China and the United States face the highest absolute costs, while developing and Sub‑Saharan African nations are most vulnerable relative to their size, and China and the U.S.

Abstract

Invasive species present significant threats to global agriculture, although how the magnitude and distribution of the threats vary between countries and regions remains unclear. Here, we present an analysis of almost 1,300 known invasive insect pests and pathogens, calculating the total potential cost of these species invading each of 124 countries of the world, as well as determining which countries present the greatest threat to the rest of the world given their trading partners and incumbent pool of invasive species. We find that countries vary in terms of potential threat from invasive species and also their role as potential sources, with apparently similar countries sometimes varying markedly depending on specifics of agricultural commodities and trade patterns. Overall, the biggest agricultural producers (China and the United States) could experience the greatest absolute cost from further species invasions. However, developing countries, in particular, Sub-Saharan African countries, appear most vulnerable in relative terms. Furthermore, China and the United States represent the greatest potential sources of invasive species for the rest of the world. The analysis reveals considerable scope for ongoing redistribution of known invasive pests and highlights the need for international cooperation to slow their spread.