Bayesian network to predict environmental risk of a possible ship accident

Abstract

This paper presents a probabilistic model predicting the risk of a possible ship accident occurrence in the Aegean Sea. Two types of accident scenarios (collision and grounding) have been studied using the Bayesian networks methodology. The model takes into account the static information of the vessel, namely the vessel type, size, age and flag. The training of the network was performed using the data of the historical accident database of the Marine Rescue Coordination Centre. In order to demonstrate the applicability of this method, two sample use cases have been conducted. The whole case study has been run within the framework of the AMINESS project.