[Relationship of dengue fever epidemic to aedes density changed by climate factors in Guangdong Province].

Abstract

In order to explore and quantify the relation between probability of dengue episode and aedes density, and climate factors, and also, to provide scientific approach for prevention and supervision of dengue fever, data on dengue fever cases, aedes vector's supervision and climate factors such as average air temperature, lowest air temperature, highest air temperature, sunlight, rainfall and relative humidity were collected and, were analyzed by correlation analysis, stepwise regression and logistic regression method. The results showed that the logistic regression equation: p (1) = 1/[1 + e-(-7.750 + 0.391 BI)], indicating that meteorology parameter correlating with breteau index(BI) were rainfall, sunlight, average air temperature, lowest average air temperature and relative humidity; by stepwise regression analysis, the regression equation: viz.: YBI = 24.800 + 0.826 X1 + 0.020 X2 - 0.418X3, X1 representing lowest average air temperature, and X2 representing rainfall and X3 representing relative humidity. It is suggested that the influence of climate factor on vector aedes density is complicated. But its primary influence factors are lowest average air temperature, rainfall and relative humidity. The primary influence factors of dengue episode are breteau index.