GIS-based MCDA–AHP modelling for avalanche susceptibility mapping of Nubra valley region, Indian Himalaya

Abstract

Avalanches are behind the majority of fatalities and heavy damage to property in snow-covered mountainous terrain like Himalaya. Recognizing avalanche susceptible areas and publication of avalanche susceptibility maps assist decision-makers and planners to execute suitable measures to reduce the avalanche risk. The present study is an attempt to prepare an avalanche susceptibility map of the Nubra valley region using multi-criteria decision analysis–analytical hierarchy process model in GIS environment. The most prominent avalanche occurrence factors used in this model are slope, aspect, curvature, elevation, terrain roughness and ground cover. ASTER GDEM V2 and Landsat 8 satellite imagery were used to generate considered factors. For validation of the results, prediction rate/accuracy is calculated using the avalanche inventory map of documented avalanche locations. To calculate the prediction accuracy, area under the ROC curve (ROC-AUC) method has been used. The prediction accuracy of the validation results using ROC-AUC shows 91%.