Using Phenomenological Models to Characterize Transmissibility and Forecast Patterns and Final Burden of Zika Epidemics

Abstract

Phenomenological models represent promising tools to generate early forecasts of epidemic impact particularly in the context of substantial uncertainty in epidemiological parameters. Our findings underscore the need to treat the reproduction number as a dynamic quantity even during the early growth phase, and emphasize the sensitivity of reproduction number estimates to assumptions on the generation interval distribution.