Assessing the effects of changing climate on mountain pine beetle dynamics

Abstract

In general terms, global climate warming will result in exacerbated insect pest problems. This is not to say, however, that the effects of every current pest species will increase under global warming. Projections regarding a particular pest species need to be made on a case-by-case basis. For example, mountain pine beetle (MPB) populations (Dendroctonus pondersae Hopkins), would benefit from global warming due to reduced winter mortality. Conversely, global warming may interfere with the maintaining of an appropriate seasonality for this non-diapausing species. Addressing such species response to modification of a basic ecological driving variable such as climate is a complex issue. Difficulty in dealing with this issue is further compounded by the fact that direct evidence is lacking and system level experimental manipulation is prohibitively expensive. The authors first describe in general terms the climatic adapted ecology of MPB and a computer model designed to represent important aspects of that ecology. Next they describe the important habitat component of mountain weather on MPB population performance and a landscape-level approach to modeling this critical driving variable. Finally, they describe a research application that uses these models to evaluate the potential of MPB outbreaks as an indication of forest health in high-elevationmore » pine forests.« less