Urbanization rate and its policy implications: Discussion and development of Northam's curve

Abstract

Northam's curve of shaping S is one of most important classical theories in urban geography.For common misreading about Northam's curve,this paper compiled original theory contents.The results indicated that level can not reach 100% in all countries;and process between 30% and 70% is not always in a state of acceleration.Urbanization rate curve was put forward,which is shaped by an inverted U.The evolution of rate was identified into four stages: embryonic stage,acceleration stage,deceleration stage,approaches zero stage.In different stages changes have different characteristics.There are five important inspirations for policies: first,the rate of change has its laws,and cannot pluck up a crop to help it grow;second,China has crossed turning point,accelerated urbanization should not be main theme of national long-term development strategy;third,China should maintain steady development orientation for urbanization;fourth,China's urban concept and focus should be in transition;fifth,urbanization,inclusive growth,coordinating urban-rural development,as well as migrant labors becoming city and town dwellers are primary targets during the 12th Five-Year Plan period.