Potential Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on the Shanghai Area

Abstract

I t!!!!!!h. WANG, B.; CHEN, S.; ZHANG, K., and SHEN, J., 1995. Potential impacts of sea-level rise on the Shanghai area. Journal of Coastal Research, SI No. 151-166. Fort Lauderdale (Florida). ISSN 0749-0208. Shanghai municipality is located in the foreland of the Changjiang (Yangtze) delta. It has a pop ulation of over 13 million and is the largest economic center in China, being responsible for one ninth of the national GNP in 1989. Shanghai is a low-lying area and has undergone severe land subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal in recent times. Thus, any significant rise in global sea level is adding to the impacts and consequences of the existing problems of relative sea-level rise. Rising sea level could result in significant economic losses for industrial and agricultural pro duction in the Shanghai area. This paper evaluates eustatic sea-level rise scenarios of 0.5,1.0, and 2.0 m by the year 2100 to determine potential physical and socioeconomic impacts. Inundation and increased flooding appear to be the most serious problems as large areas are close to exist ing sea level. Salinization and soil waterlogging should also be considered. Protection appears to be the only possible response to counter direct inundation and flooding. However, responses to salinization and waterlogging are less clear. ADDITIONAL INDEX WORDS: Subsidence, groundwater withdrawal, inundation, increased flooding, salinization, deltas, response costs.