Modelling Decisions in International Relations: Game Theory and Beyond

Abstract

Renewed interest in Game Theory and its extensions comes at a time when richer models than ever before are on offer. This paper starts with a non-technical introduction to game models, arguing that they can best be used to provide an understanding of decisions, rather than prescriptions. It then examines some common criticisms of the approach, in particular those surrounding the concept of “rational choice.” Extensions to the basic model are then illustrated: for example, approaches stressing differences in perception or introducing “internal” and “external” games. Rather than being restricted to rational choice in a narrow sense, these approaches offer a richer picture of decision-making as “reflective choice.” More radical possible developments include replacing the “game” metaphor by that of “drama,” and combining formal analysis with empirical theory to create “knowledge-based” modelling methods.