Markov Chain-Based Rapid Assessment on Operational Reliability of Power Grid

Abstract

In view of the defects in power system reliability analysis that Monte Carlo simulation needs a lot of computational resources and it converges slowly,from the viewpoint of operation and based on Markov chain and under the premise that equipment failure rate complies with exponential distribution characteristics,a model,by which fast analytical analysis on power system operation reliability can be carried out,is proposed.The core of the proposed model lies in following aspects: firstly,a criterion to dividing power system operating conditions into three categories,which can be easily implemented in engineering practice,as well as corresponding state space transition expression are proposed;secondly,based on historical operation data or simulation data of power system,a Markov state transition probability matrix equivalent to power system operation is attained;thirdly,on this basis utilizing state transition probability matrix and current power system operating condition,such reliability indices for some time to come as operation state transition probability,steady state probability and mean time to first failure of power system can be rapidly analyzed to implement rapid assessment of power system operation reliability.Simulation results of RBTS-BUS6 system prove the Markov property of power system state transition and the effectiveness of this research.