A process model for forecasting conditions conducive to blow-up fire events

Abstract

Extreme fires are responsible for devastating losses in recent years in Victoria, New South Wales and the ACT. Detailed case studies have revealed that an extreme fire will include one or more blowup fire events. The importance of this is that, unlike extreme fires, blow-up fire events are relatively predictable. Using the outcomes from a number of recent studies, we believe that it is becoming feasible to forecast conditions conducive to blow-up fire events.