Forecasting on Grain Demand and Availability of Cultivated Land Resources Based on Grain Safety in China

Abstract

Grain safety is the base of social development harmoniously.Based on system dynamics,this paper simulates the grain demand of 2010,2015 and 2020.The results indicate the demands of grain ration and seed grain are relatively stable,but the demands of feed grain and industrial grain increase significantly along with economic development.As a result,the general trend of grain demand shows rigid increase.Under the self-sufficiency rate of 95 per cent and 100 per cent,the relationship between grain demand and cultivated land supply is simulated,which is tight balance.So the triple base line of grain safety must be advanced as follows:(1)Effective cultivated land and grain-sown area should be ensured.(2)The per unit area yield of grain should be increased steadily.(3)The population growth should be strictly control.