Factor Decomposition of Carbon Emissions from Energy Consumption of Shandong Province Based on LMDI

Abstract

In recent years,Shandong Province has achieved remarkable performance in economic development.Meanwhile,it is being faced with problems of increasing carbon emissions.Based on the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories,this study calculated the coefficient of carbon emissions for different energy.By using these coefficients and amount of energy consumption,carbon emissions from energy consumption of Shandong Province from 2000 through 2009 were calculated.Results show that the carbon emissions from energy consumption were increasing at an annual rate of 16.06%.Using the logarithmic mean weight Divisia method(LMDI),the carbon emissions were decomposed into five effects,i.e.,population,per capita wealth,industrial structure,energy consumption intensity,and energy consumption structure.On the basis of the LMDI model,effects and accumulated effects of different factors were explored.Given that the consumption of some energy in an industry in a given year may be zero,four computational formulas of factor decomposition under these exceptional cases were also provided.Based on the effects of different factors,the effect distributions of them were defined.The decomposition results show that using year 2000 as the base year,the accumulated effect of energy consumption intensity was negative,whereas the accumulated effects of the other four factors were all positive.Among five factors,the per capita wealth was found to be the largest contributor of carbon emissions.The population played a negligible role in carbon emissions.The energy consumption intensity was considered to be a strong constraint for carbon emissions.The fluctuation of its effect was generally consistent with that of the energy consumption intensity.The energy consumption structure and industrial structure showed certain effects,but their impacts warrant further study.The variation trend in energy consumption structure effect was in accordance with that of the ratio of high carbon energy.The variation trend in the industrial structure was identical to that of GDP proportion of the secondary industry.Some recommendations on carbon emissions reduction from energy consumption of Shandong Province were given based on the analysis,i.e.,maintaining a reasonable GDP growth rate,enhancing the educational level of population,saving energy and improving energy efficiency,developing low carbon energy,exploiting new energy,optimizing energy consumption structure,reducing the ratio of the secondary industry,speeding up the tertiary industry,and optimizing the industrial structure.