Foreign Military Intervention, Power Dynamics, and Rebel Group Cohesion

Abstract

Third-party states use foreign military intervention as a tool to influence the outcome of intrastate conflict. The literature identifies other consequences associated with this intervention but has not yet examined its effect on rebel group cohesion. We might expect rebel groups to coalesce or splinter depending on the direction of the intervention. This paper tests this relationship on all intrastate armed conflicts during the period from 1975 to 2009. It finds that rebels tend to coalesce when a foreign power intervenes on their behalf. External interventions, whether supporting the rebels or the government, however, do not appear to influence rebel group splintering.