The relationship between spatial structure of accessibility and population change in Pearl River Delta

Abstract

Based on the road and railway network data of 1988,1998 and 2008 in the Pearl River Delta,supported by the GIS software,this paper examines the spatial structure and evolution of major cities' accessibility in this region,and quantitatively analyzes the relationship between road and railway accessibility and population change using GAM models.The results are shown as follows.During the study periods,road accessibility of Guangzhou-Dongguan-Shenzhen line is the highest,gradually decreasing from the center to the surroundings.However,the spatial structure of railway accessibility has changed little,Guangzhou-Foshan areas are the center with the highest accessibility,and the accessibility decreases from the center to the surroundings.Evolution of land transport network in the Pearl River Delta is mainly affected by road network,and rail transport network plays a minor role in land network.There are great differences of accessibility improvement in the two research stages that demonstrate diminishing effects,and the accessibility improvement in the first stage(1988-1998) is more outstanding than that in the second stage(1998-2008).The relationship between road-railway traffic and population change is different,and roads have significant effect on population change,with its contribution rate with population change being 11.56%,48.07%,and 44.92% in the three periods,respectively.The relationship between railway and population change was weak,but after 1990,with the railway network expanded and the standard of railway transport service improved,its relationship with population change has gradually strengthened.