Exploring agricultural production systems and their fundamental components with system dynamics modelling

TLDR

U.S. agricultural production is rapidly changing due to shifting consumer demands, input costs, food safety concerns, and environmental impacts, with complex multidimensional drivers interacting to affect sustainability. The study develops and simulates a system dynamics model to explore how drivers interact to affect the economic, environmental, and social sustainability of agricultural production. The model evaluates each driver’s influence on sustainability differences among crops-only, livestock-only, and integrated crop–livestock systems.

Abstract

Agricultural production in the United States is undergoing marked changes due to rapid shifts in consumer demands, input costs, and concerns for food safety and environmental impact. Agricultural production systems are comprised of multidimensional components and drivers that interact in complex ways to influence production sustainability. In a mixed-methods approach, we combine qualitative and quantitative data to develop and simulate a system dynamics model that explores the systemic interaction of these drivers on the economic, environmental and social sustainability of agricultural production. We then use this model to evaluate the role of each driver in determining the differences in sustainability between three distinct production systems: crops only, livestock only, and an integrated crops and livestock system. The result from these modelling efforts found that the greatest potential for sustainability existed with the crops only production system. While this study presents a stand-alone contribution to sector knowledge and practice, it encourages future research in this sector that employs similar systems-based methods to enable more sustainable practices and policies within agricultural production.