Mineral resources: Geological scarcity, market price trends, and future generations

TLDR

The world’s most geologically scarce minerals—such as antimony, molybdenum, and zinc—could be exhausted within decades to a century if extraction continues to rise. The study investigates whether free‑market price mechanisms alone can conserve these scarce minerals for future generations, and recommends international policy measures to raise prices and promote substitution and recycling. The authors analyze geological scarcity’s influence on long‑term price trends by comparing historical prices of scarce versus abundant minerals. Historical data from 1900–2013 show that price increases did not signal impending exhaustion, indicating that market forces alone are unlikely to conserve scarce minerals for future generations.

Abstract

The extractable ores of the world's geologically scarcest mineral resources (e.g. antimony, molybdenum and zinc) may be exhausted within several decades to a century, if their extraction continues to increase. This paper explores the likelihood that these scarce mineral resources can be conserved in time for future generations without intervening but instead simply relying on the price mechanism of the free market system. First we discuss the role of geological scarcity in the long-term price development of mineral resources. Then, to see whether geological scarcity affects the price of minerals we compare the historical trends in the prices of geologically scarce mineral resources with those of geologically more abundant mineral resources. The results show that in the period 1900–2013 the price mechanism did not result in high prices that provide advance warning of exhaustion of minerals. We therefore argue that if conservation is left to market forces, it is not certain that geologically scarce minerals will be timely, automatically, and sufficiently conserved for future generations. We recommend preparing international policy measures targeted at a price increase of the scarcest mineral resources, in order to accelerate substitution and recycling of these materials and help save the geologically scarcest mineral resources for future generations.