Forecasting Ground Temperatures under a Highway Embankment on Degrading Permafrost

Abstract

Changes in air and ground temperatures can lead to degradation of permafrost, thawing of ground ice, and damage to linear infrastructure such as highways, railways, airfield runways, and pipelines. As part of research into the behavior of road embankments on degrading permafrost, ground temperatures under an instrumented highway embankment were recorded over 4 years. The project site is located 18 km north of Thompson, Manitoba, Canada. Thermistor strings were among several types of instruments installed beneath the toe, midslope, shoulder, and centerline of the embankment. The principal objective of the research was thermal numerical modeling of current and projected future ground temperatures in the embankment and its foundation. Measured ground temperatures were used with local climate records to calibrate a two-dimensional thermal numerical model. Future changes projected by climatologists were then used to simulate potential long-term temperature in the embankment.