SIMULATION OF SUGARCANE YIELD AT THE SCALE OF A MILL SUPPLY AREA

Abstract

In order to develop a sugarcane yield forecasting system, a crop yield simulation model is evaluated at the scale of a mill supply area (MSA), using historical climate and yield data. The area1 extent of this scale necessitates the development of spatially distributed model input, both for historical model evaluation and for future implementation of a yield forecasting system. Research into the effect of crop cycles on yield, the derivation of input required to run the simulation model at the scale of a MSA and a preliminary comparison of simulated and observed cane yields is presented in this paper. It was confirmed that cycles have an effect on yields at the field scale. A modelling strategy incorporating crop cycles was developed for modelling at the scale of a MSA and a comparison of simulated versus observed yields gave rise to an index of agreement (d) of 0,836 and a Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) of 0,760. The implications of research carried out to date on the subsequent incorporation of seasonal climate forecasts are discussed.