Modeling when, where, and how to manage a forest epidemic, motivated by sudden oak death in California

TLDR

The underlying principles are important for management of all plant disease epidemics in natural ecosystems. The study uses sudden oak death in California to demonstrate how a statewide mathematical model can optimize control of established epidemics in complex heterogeneous landscapes, addressing questions of timing, scale, deployment, budgeting, detection, and resource allocation. The authors employ a statewide model parameterized with pathogen spread data to answer broadly applicable questions about epidemic management.

Abstract

Significance We use sudden oak death in California to illustrate how mathematical modeling can be used to optimize control of established epidemics of invading pathogens in complex heterogeneous landscapes. We use our statewide model—which has been parameterized to pathogen spread data—to address a number of broadly applicable questions. How quickly must management start? When is an epidemic too large to prevent further spread effectively? How should local treatment be deployed? How does this depend on the budget and level of risk aversion? Where should treatment be targeted? How should expenditure be balanced on detection and treatment? What if the budget changes over time? The underlying principles are important for management of all plant disease epidemics in natural ecosystems.