Simplified Procedure for the Performance-Based Prediction of Lateral Spread Displacements

Abstract

Past researchers have introduced performance-based methods to simultaneously account for the various sources of uncertainty in the prediction of lateral spread displacements through the incorporation of a probabilistic analytical framework. Although these methods can effectively handle the various sources of uncertainty associated with empirical lateral spread displacement prediction, they are difficult for engineers to perform without the use of specialized numerical tools. This paper introduces a simplified procedure that approximates the results of the performance-based method through the use of lateral spread reference parameter maps. Equations are provided to correct mapped reference parameter displacements for site-specific geotechnical and topographical information to produce hazard-targeted estimates of lateral spread displacement. The simplified performance-based procedure is validated through a comparative study using several soil profiles across several cities in the United States. Results show that the simplified procedure approximates the results from the full performance-based procedure at all evaluated return periods within 3% and/or 4.0 cm.