Managing Wheat From Space: Linking MODIS NDVI and Crop Models for Predicting Australian Dryland Wheat Biomass

Abstract

This study explored the relationships between moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI observations with both measured and simulated fractional green cover (FGrC), leaf area index (LAI), and above ground biomass (AGB) for dryland wheat in Australia. A total of 37 paddocks in north-western Victoria, Australia, were sampled during 2003-2006 for AGB at anthesis, and for FGrC, NDVI (from an active optical sensor), and AGB during 2012. The 2012 FGrC and NDVI measurements were fitted to MODIS NDVI, resulting in positive, linear relationships when the MODIS NDVI values were ≤ 0.80. Measured AGB was also positively, linearly related to MODIS summed NDVI, resulting in an overall R <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sup> of 0.81 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 1397 kg/ha. Crop simulations were run for the fourteen paddocks from 2003 to 2006, and six paddocks from 2012. Four crop phenological points were selected to extract corresponding NDVI and simulated crop parameters: emergence, peak LAI, the mid-point between emergence and peak LAI, and anthesis. Linear models were fit between the MODIS NDVI and simulated values of FGrC, LAI, and AGB. Overall, the highest R <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sup> values corresponded to using all of the dates for FGrC (R <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sup> = 0.82) and AGB (R <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sup> = 0.92), and anthesis dates for LAI (R <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sup> = 0.74). For FGrC and AGB, the RMSE with simulated parameters were comparable or better than the equivalent results from the in situ measurements (note that there were no LAI in situ measurements to compare with). The results support the notion for extending the value of the MODIS NDVI using crop simulation models. The combination of remotely sensed and simulation data might offer regional maps of spatial AGB and ultimately grain yield, which would have high value for research, resource management, policy, and potentially, crop management.