Economic Impacts from PM_2.5 Pollution-Related Health Effects in China: A Provincial-Level Analysis

TLDR

The study evaluates the PM2.5 pollution‑related health impacts on China’s national and provincial economy. The authors employ a computable general equilibrium model combined with updated nonlinear exposure‑response functions to quantify these effects. Results indicate that in 2030, China would lose 2.00 % of GDP and incur $25.2 billion in health costs without PM2.5 controls, but a $101.8 billion investment (0.79 % of GDP) could yield a 1.17 % GDP gain; provincial impacts vary, with high losses in Tianjin, Shanghai, Henan, Beijing, and Hebei, benefits in two‑thirds of provinces, and higher investment than gains in some underdeveloped regions.

Abstract

This study evaluates the PM2.5 pollution-related health impacts on the national and provincial economy of China using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and the latest nonlinear exposure-response functions. Results show that the health and economic impacts may be substantial in provinces with a high PM2.5 concentration. In the WoPol scenario without PM2.5 pollution control policy, we estimate that China experiences a 2.00% GDP loss and 25.2 billion USD in health expenditure from PM2.5 pollution in 2030. In contrast, with control policy in the WPol scenario, a control investment of 101.8 billion USD (0.79% of GDP) and a gain of 1.17% of China's GDP from improving PM2.5 pollution are projected. At the provincial level, GDP loss in 2030 in the WoPol scenario is high in Tianjin (3.08%), Shanghai (2.98%), Henan (2.32%), Beijing (2.75%), and Hebei (2.60%) and the top five provinces with the highest additional health expenditure are Henan, Sichuan, Shandong, Hebei, and Jiangsu. Controlling PM2.5 pollution could bring positive benefits in two-thirds of provinces. Tianjin, Shanghai, Beijing, Henan, Jiangsu, and Hebei experience most benefits from PM2.5 pollution control as a result of a higher PM2.5 pollution and dense population distribution. Conversely, the control investment is higher than GDP gain in some underdeveloped provinces, such as Ningxia, Guizhou, Shanxi, Gansu, and Yunnan.