On the estimation of ship's fuel consumption and speed curve: A statistical approach

TLDR

Fuel efficiency and environmental concerns drive the need to estimate a ship’s fuel consumption for future voyages to aid decision making and cost savings. The paper develops an operational approach and algorithm to estimate accurate fuel consumption and speed curves for ships, enabling owners and operators to plan voyages that save fuel and reduce emissions. By statistically analyzing 418 noon reports of a Pure Car and Truck Carrier, the authors modeled the influence of draft, displacement, weather, hull and propeller roughness, and used these results to build a simple algorithm that estimates fuel consumption and speed curves and supports voyage planning. The analysis shows that stronger wind and head weather raise fuel consumption, and the algorithm can quantify these differences and accurately estimate future fuel use for the case ship and its sister.

Abstract

When fuel efficiency is at stake, along with the reduction of the environmental foot print of air pollution, a need is presented to estimate a ship's fuel consumption for a forthcoming voyage, and means for decision making and for cost saving. This paper suggests an operational approach for obtaining an accurate fuel consumption and speed curve, on the basis of major factors affecting it, namely, ship’s draft and displacement, weather force and direction, hull and propeller roughness. A statistical analysis on 418 noon reports of a Pure Car and Truck Carrier case ship is carried out and the influence of the above factors is calculated. As expected, stronger wind and head weather increases the fuel consumption, and the difference between several weather conditions could be quantified. A simple and accurate algorithm is proposed in order for ship owners, managers and operators to be in a position to apply the suggested method on their fleet. Finally, applications of the structured algorithm are introduced with examples, in estimating the fuel consumption of the case ship for a future voyage, and also the same for a sister ship. Furthermore, voyage planning in several scenarios is proposed in order to assist the stakeholders with decision making aimed to fuel saving and environmental friendliness of their ships.