The Innovative Probability Models and Software Technologies of Risks Prediction for Systems Operating in Various Fields

Abstract

The paper is concerned with the development of the original probability models and supporting them software technologies to analyze and optimize system processes. Functionality and usability to analyze processes of threats development, information processing, situation control, system monitoring and integrity repairing are presented. Rational use of the proposed models and software technologies allows to predict effectiveness in system life cycle and optimize system operation. Effects are demonstrated by some examples of researches, applications and comparisons based on predicted quality and risks. The spectrum of the analyzed systems includes systems of government agencies, manufacturing structures (including enterprises, oil-and-gas and hazardous production systems), power generation, food storage, aviation and space industry, emergency services, municipal economy, military, etc.