Ideological Change in the U. S. Senate: Time and Electoral Responsiveness

Abstract

Examinations of the linkage between legislators and their constituencies have largely ignored the question of whether the strength of this linkage varies over time. Are legislators more representative or responsive at one point in their term than at others? The using of terms to reconcile conflicting pressures should be most feasible for U.S. Senators with six year terms. This study examines whether a senator's ideological stance changes as a function of time remaining in his term. Patterned instability did exist and such shifting was generally in the direction of ideological moderation. Although linear relationships between electoral vulnerability and moderation were weak, there was some evidence of nonlinearity since those winning by very narrow margins were especially likely to shift positions.