A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context

TLDR

Economic growth, inflation, and unemployment are known to influence incumbent popularity, yet cross‑national studies of these economic factors have yielded weak and inconsistent results. The study argues that political factors shaping electoral consequences of performance must be systematically incorporated. Multivariate analyses of 102 elections in 19 industrialized democracies were employed to estimate the cross‑national impact of such political factors. The results show that the government’s ideological image, its electoral base, and the clarity of its political responsibility are essential for understanding how conditions affect voting for or against incumbents.

Abstract

A large literature has demonstrated that such factors as growth, inflation, and unemployment affect the popularity of incumbents within many democratic countries. However, cross-national aggregate analyses of economic show only weak and inconsistent effects. We argue for the systematic incorporation of political factors that shape the electoral consequences of performance. Multivariate analyses of 102 elections in 19 industrialized democracies are used to estimate the cross-national impact of and political factors. The analyses show that considerations of the ideological image of the government, its electoral base, and the clarity of its political responsibility are essential to understanding the effects of conditions on voting for or against incumbents.