Rethinking the Exchange Rate Impact on Trade in a World with Global Value Chains

Abstract

Global value chains (GVCs) are a prominent feature of global production and trading systems. Using the OECD-WTO database on trade in value added, this paper examines the exchange rate elasticities of GVC-related exports and imports and compares them with elasticities for trade in traditonal goods. We find that a real depreciation raises both the foreign and domestic value-added content of GVC-related exports. The size of these elasticities is found to be smaller when the import content of GVC exports is larger. Among the key policy implications of these results is that exchange rate changes by small contributors of value added have little effect on their own production or the production of their supply chain partners. On the other hand, large contributors to the value-added of the final product create spillovers to their smaller supply chain partners, obviating traditional beggar-thy-neighbor concerns.