Kondratieff Waves as War Cycles

Abstract

Kondratieff long economic waves are found in the core of the world-system, at least in synchronized price movements, from 1495 through 1945. These long economic waves are synchronous with a cycle of war between core nations, in which an escalatory war upswing recurs roughly every 50 years. These great power wars apparently play a central role in the economic long wave, especially in connection with inflationary periods on long wave upswings. The long waves of economics and war in the core of the world-system can be traced through ten repetitions since 1495; since around 1945, however, war, prices and production have diverged. Over five centuries, the war cycle has lengthened somewhat, the wars themselves have shortened, and their severity has increased a hundredfold.