A reduced aircraft separation risk assessment model

Abstract

Improved safety and increased capacity are usually viewed as conflicting goals. The recent Gore Commission report set a goal for civil aviation of reducing the accident rate by a factor of five over ten years while enabling increased capacity. In order to achieve these goals, new technologies and procedures will have to be introduced. Many capacity initiatives are related to the safety-critical procedures for approach and landing and other terminal area operations. There is currently no accepted method to quantify the relationship between safety levels, aircraft separation standards, and new applications of technology in the terminal area. This paper presents a modeling approach to quantify the risk associated with changing aircraft separation. The model can be used to assess the overall level of safety associated with reducing separation standards and the introduction of new technology and procedures. Acknowledgments* The authors gratefully acknowledge the support and