Afrikaner Fears and the Politics of Despair: Understanding Change in South Africa

Abstract

In light of recent changes in South African politics symbolized by the release from prison of Mr. Nelson Mandela, we ask three related questions: (1) Why has the Afrikaner-dominated government of President F. W. de Klerk decided at this time to initiate a process of political reform? (2) Is there any chance at all that a negotiated settlement to the country's problems can be reached? and (3) What theoretical perspective best enables us to answer these questions? In seeking answers we use data collected in a 1988 mail questionnaire from a nationwide sample of elite Afrikaner politicians, civil servants, businessmen, clergy, academics, and journalists. Our theoretical perspective questions both neo-Marxist and neo-liberal versions of “modernization theory” with their excessive focus on capitalist development as the motor of change and, in contrast, stresses how black political practices have affected white attitudes and political transformation. We demonstrate the fundamental role of individual attitudes in the circle of reciprocal influence between the economy and the polity. Our evidence indicates that prominent Afrikaners appear willing to accept a federal system in which power would be shared among participating racial groups, but they are not yet prepared to agree to the nonracial democracy demanded by apartheid's opponents. We thus see negotiations as likely, but whether they will result in a “post-apartheid” South Africa will depend upon continuing black resistance to race-based politics.