Does Politics Matter? A Time-Series Analysis of Minority Employment Patterns

Abstract

Public sector jobs represent a major source of political and economic progress for racial minorities. However, wide variation exists across United States cities with respect to how effectively minorities have been able to lay claim to an equitable share of these jobs. Past research suggests that the election of a minority mayor plays a major role in successful employment strategies. Previous studies, however, have been limited by reliance on cross-sectional research designs. Employing a pooled time series design in a large number of cities, we find that black mayors have very little impact on black job success. We also find that Hispanic mayors have no effect on Hispanic job success. Instead, favorable minority employment outcomes are determined by an interaction among minority representatives on city councils and minority administrators in key decision-making positions. This political-bureaucratic explanation suggests that a major reassessment of the determinants of minority employment progress is in order.