War and the Economic Growth of Major Powers

Abstract

As part of an ongoing analysis of the expansion of the international system's major powers, this study examines the net impact of warfare on the economic growth of five of the system's leading state actors since 1700. A review of earlier efforts suggests the technical utility of Box-Tiao intervention techniques. It is also important to distinguish between the historical impacts of global and interstate wars. As hypothesized, the impact of war on economic growth is primarily temporary. However, the effects of interstate wars are statisticaly insignificant while global wars tend to create significant impacts. The implications of these findings are discussed in terms of the lack of attention allocated to war consequences, the theoretical reluctance to differentiate between types of warfare, and the longer term relationships between economic and political effects of warfare.